Since this is now already the second war between Georgians and Ossetians in this region in the last 20 years and considering previous Ossetian rebellions at the begin of the 20th century it is becoming increasing unlikely for Georgia to get back control of this small but restive highland, let alone to find peace with the Ossetians living there.
In view of Georgia's ambitions to join NATO it is inescapable for Georgia to first solve its territorial disputes. Given the Kosovo precedent, some voices, especially from Russia, are already arguing for a separation of South Ossetia. There are, however, at least two reasons why this might be unacceptable for Georgia.
1. In contrary to Kosovo, South Ossetia is not almost entirely settled by Ossetians. 30% percent of its population are Georgians. In fact, Georgian and Ossetian villages in South Ossetia are interlocked with each other. Just take a look at the first of the pictures provided here.
So, by separating the whole of the region which is called South Ossetia from Georgia, one would wrong the Georgians living there. Separating just the Ossetian populated areas would create a territory looking like Swiss cheese.
2. While Kosovo is situated in a remote part of Serbia, South Ossetia is located in the center of Georgia. Actually, it borders the main transport corridor of Georgia, running from Tbilisi in the east through Gori in the center to Kutaisi in the west. North of this corridor are the Greater Caucasus mountains, south of it is the Lesser Caucasus mountain range.
This can also be seen on the first of the maps. Thus, by separating South Ossetia from Georgia this would almost cut the country in two, creating indeniable risks for the territorial integrity of this country.
Instead, I would like to propose a different territorial solution to this conflict. When you take a look at the second map you will see that some areas of Georgia are north of the main Greater Caucasus crest. These territories, I will call them "Northcaucasian Georgia", are hardly accessible and therefore scarcely populated. They are actually named Khevi, Khevsureti and Tusheti, mostly so because of the Georgian tribes who still live there. You can see them on the second map presented here.
My proposal would suggest exchanging the Ossetian population of South Ossetia with the Georgian population of these highlands and then giving this land to Russia where they could be united with North Ossetia. After that the Russian-Georgian border would run exactly on the main crest of the Greater Caucasus mountain range.
Of course, this has some disadvantages for some of the parties involved.
For Georgians:
- Georgia would still lose a part of its territory.
- The tribes living in the lost territories would have to leave their home regions (though not their homeland).
For Ossetians:
- Some of Northcaucasian Georgia is very remote.
For Russia:
- May be the fact that it would lose one possibility of destabilizing Georgia.
In return, the advantages for all of the parties are immense:
For Georgians:
- Georgia would sustain its territorial integrity. The main crest of the Greater Caucasus is a border much easier to defend than the one with South Ossetia.
- Georgia would evade further conflicts in this part of its territory by separating the ethnic groups involved.
For Ossetians:
- A secure, defendable homeland and legitimation.
- With Khevi and its main town of Kazbegi (now Stepantsminda) they would receive a region which is still quite large and actually easier accessable from North Ossetia than South Ossetia is.
- They could live from tourism based on the exclusive location just beyond mighty Mount Kazbek.
For Russians:
- A territory settled by the rather "friendly" Ossetians on the border with Georgia, right behind the rather restive regions of Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan.
- Therefore a better control of Northern Causaus.
A comparison of the "exchanged" territories is shown on the third map.
What do you think about that proposal? Feel free to comment.